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Astro Bob: A Big Aurora Sneaks Up On Us – Duluth News Tribune

astro-bob:-a-big-aurora-sneaks-up-on-us-–-duluth-news-tribune
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I could never be a space weather forecaster. The aurora is just too unpredictable. Scientists at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center work tirelessly examining solar images and spacecraft data and then lay it all on the line with a written forecast. I and many others receive those multiple updated forecasts in our email boxes several times a day .

Aurora from space
This is the view of the aurora from space taken at 3:50 a.m. CDT, April 10 by the Suomi NPP satellite. I’ve labeled several cities. The broad, swirly band of aurora is part of a much larger structure centered over Earth’s north geomagnetic pole called the auroral oval. The closer you’re located to the band, the higher the aurora appears in the sky until it’s right on top of you.

Contributed / NOAA

Sometimes they nail it, and a solar blast delivers an aurora on or near the predicted time. Other times the crew misses the mark — the aurora appears, but it’s much weaker (or stronger!) than expected. Or nothing happens at all. I admire and appreciate their efforts. They have to deal with a capricious star and frankly, not enough information. The rest of us only have clouds to worry about.

Auroral oval
This diagram, which roughly outlines the northern auroral oval, shows the probability of seeing Sunday morning’s aurora at 12:20 a.m. CDT. Notice that it extends across the Upper Midwest and northern Mountain states.

Contributed / NOAA SWPC

Early Saturday evening (April 9), the forecast showed nothing special. There was only the possibility of “activity” — nothing on the storm-level — from 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. Under a moonless sky that would mean a modest glow very low in the northern sky visible northern North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and possibly other states. But the moon was both high and bright Saturday night, so it would have easily washed out the meager light.

Aurora and moonlight
This is the aurora around 12:30 a.m. when the moon was still up. Many dozens of thread-like rays line the hanging arcs. A much brighter rayed arc glows above distant clouds.

Contributed / Bob King

Instead, a G3 or strong storm arrived in its place with aurora easily visible in moonlight after the sky cleared around midnight from my location in Duluth, Minnesota. Even though wisps of high clouds smeared the view, it was still a good aurora with lovely crenulated arcs and lots of movement. I found a field with a nice view but getting there meant punching through foot-deep snow with every step. After stomping down a 1-foot-wide hole to stand in, it was time to enjoy the show.

Aurora and Milky Way
In this wide-angle view taken at 4 a.m. April 10, the summer Milky Way (top) hovers above the northern lights.

Contributed / Bob King

I returned home to post an alert but couldn’t resist another look after moonset around 4 a.m. to see the lights in a dark sky. Much better! So was the snow. The top crust had set in the deepening cold (24°) and was now as firm as concrete and completely walkable. Such are the small joys of the late-night aurora seeker.

It sounds cliche, but no two auroras are alike. There are always similarities, but the pace, evolution, form and color vary each time. Not quite knowing what to expect means it’s hard to walk away. Who knows what might be next? Of course, I’m paying the price (a small one) for my lack of sleep, a mild headache I’ll remedy with a nap.

Aurora colors
Because a camera gathers light, it’s much better at showing aurora colors than the eye, which sees in real time.

Contributed / Bob King

The cause of Sunday morning’s storm appears to be a coronal mass ejection that arrived on April 8 with little effect … initially. There’s speculation that strong magnetic fields flowing in its wake connected with Earth’s own magnetic field a day or so after arrival and sparked the sudden, strong display.

Right now, things have quieted down with minor storming (G1) in the offing for Sunday afternoon followed by quiet conditions Sunday night (April 10) when it’s dark over the U.S. and Canada. The moon continues towards full making any upcoming auroras tricky or impossible to see until April 19, when we enter the next evening moon-free period.

Never worry too much about the hour or the temperature. It’s all about being outside.

“Astro” Bob King is a freelance writer for the Duluth News Tribune.

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